Kelly and Drawdown
Simulate thousands of synthetic bankroll paths under flat, fixed-fraction, Kelly and uncertainty-aware staking, including what happens when your probability is wrong.
Lab 3 · Kelly and drawdown
Synthetic · deterministicSet what your model believes and what is actually true (unknowable in real life). Each run simulates 400 synthetic bankrolls of 100 units with the same outcomes for every strategy.
True EV per bet: 0.0% · Believed EV: +10.0%
Choose inputs and run the simulation. The default sets a model that believes 55% when the truth is 50%: a 5-percentage-point overestimate (10% relative) at even money.
Educational calculator. Uses only the numbers you enter or seeded synthetic data — no live prices, no staking, no real money.