Research Replication Challenge
Audit a deliberately flawed synthetic backtest: find the bad price, look-ahead quotes, duplicate rows and unexecutable stakes.
Lab 5 · Research replication challenge
Synthetic · deterministicA fictional research note claims a spectacular return. Audit its 27 recorded bets (fictional teams, synthetic data). Flag each row you believe is invalid. Selection rule: bet when the recorded price is at least 7.5% above the consensus price. The 7.5% threshold was chosen after testing 40 thresholds on this same sample.
Claimed ROI (as recorded)+161.9%
Claimed profit501.8 on 310
ROI after your flags+161.9%
Bets after your flags27
| ID | Match · pick | Kickoff | Quoted at | Odds | Consensus | Stake / max | Result | Your flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B01 | Harbour City v Northvale · Home | 08-16 14:00 | 08-16 11:05 | 2.10 | 1.94 | 10 / 25 | Won | |
| B02 | Ashbridge v Millford · Away | 08-16 14:00 | 08-16 10:40 | 3.40 | 3.14 | 10 / 25 | Lost | |
| B03 | Kestrel Park v Dunmore · Home | 08-17 13:00 | 08-17 09:15 | 1.95 | 1.80 | 10 / 25 | Won | |
| B04 | Redcastle v Ferrybank · Draw | 08-23 14:00 | 08-23 12:10 | 2.60 | 2.40 | 10 / 25 | Lost | |
| B05 | Northvale v Glenrock · Away | 08-23 16:30 | 08-23 13:00 | 2.25 | 2.08 | 10 / 25 | Lost | |
| B06 | Millford v Harbour City · Away | 08-30 14:00 | 08-30 10:20 | 3.10 | 2.87 | 10 / 25 | Won | |
| B07 | Dunmore v Ashbridge · Home | 08-30 14:00 | 08-30 11:45 | 2.05 | 1.89 | 10 / 25 | Lost | |
| B08 | Glenrock v Kestrel Park · Away | 08-31 15:30 | 08-31 12:30 | 1.90 | 1.75 | 10 / 25 | Won | |
| B09 | Ferrybank v Redcastle · Draw | 09-13 14:00 | 09-13 09:50 | 2.80 | 2.59 | 10 / 25 | Lost | |
| B10 | Harbour City v Dunmore · Home | 09-13 16:30 | 09-13 14:00 | 2.40 | 2.22 | 10 / 25 | Won | |
| B11 | Ashbridge v Glenrock · Away | 09-20 14:00 | 09-20 10:10 | 3.60 | 3.33 | 10 / 25 | Lost | |
| B12 | Millford v Northvale · Home | 09-20 14:00 | 09-20 11:30 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 10 / 25 | Lost | |
| B13 | Redcastle v Kestrel Park · Away | 09-27 14:00 | 09-27 09:40 | 2.30 | 2.12 | 10 / 25 | Won | |
| B14 | Dunmore v Ferrybank · Draw | 09-27 16:30 | 09-27 13:20 | 2.75 | 2.54 | 10 / 25 | Lost | |
| B15 | Glenrock v Harbour City · Home | 10-04 14:00 | 10-04 10:00 | 1.98 | 1.83 | 10 / 25 | Won | |
| B16 | Northvale v Ashbridge · Away | 10-04 14:00 | 10-04 11:15 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 10 / 25 | Lost | |
| B17 | Kestrel Park v Millford · Home | 10-18 14:00 | 10-18 10:25 | 2.15 | 1.99 | 10 / 25 | Lost | |
| B18 | Ferrybank v Glenrock · Away | 10-18 16:30 | 10-18 12:50 | 2.50 | 2.31 | 10 / 25 | Won | |
| B19 | Harbour City v Redcastle · Home | 10-25 14:00 | 10-25 09:30 | 2.20 | 2.03 | 10 / 25 | Lost | |
| B20 | Ashbridge v Dunmore · Draw | 10-25 14:00 | 10-25 11:40 | 3.00 | 2.77 | 10 / 25 | Lost | |
| B21 | Millford v Kestrel Park · Away | 11-01 14:00 | 11-01 10:05 | 2.45 | 2.26 | 10 / 25 | Lost | |
| B22 | Northvale v Ferrybank · Home | 11-01 16:30 | 11-01 13:10 | 1.92 | 1.77 | 10 / 25 | Lost | |
| B23 | Kestrel Park v Ashbridge · Away | 11-08 14:00 | 11-08 10:30 | 41.00 | 4.10 | 10 / 25 | Won | |
| B24 | Redcastle v Northvale · Home | 11-08 14:00 | 11-08 14:17 | 2.90 | 2.12 | 10 / 25 | Won | |
| B25 | Glenrock v Millford · Draw | 11-15 14:00 | 11-15 16:05 | 2.70 | 2.49 | 10 / 25 | Won | |
| B26 | Millford v Harbour City · Away | 08-30 14:00 | 08-30 10:20 | 3.10 | 2.87 | 10 / 25 | Won | |
| B27 | Dunmore v Glenrock · Home | 11-22 14:00 | 11-22 12:00 | 2.65 | 2.45 | 50 / 25 | Won |
Educational calculator. Uses only the numbers you enter or seeded synthetic data — no live prices, no staking, no real money.