Measuring the Incidence of Insider Trading in a Market for State-Contingent Claims

Main finding

Provides the estimation approach later used to convert odds into probabilities under Shin's model.

Limitations

Interpretation of the estimated parameter as insider activity is disputed.

Study details

Authors

Hyun Song Shin

Published

1993

Venue

The Economic Journal 103(420), 1141–1153

Status

Published

Evidence type

Peer-reviewed empirical

Evidence strength

Moderate (our assessment of how much weight the finding can bear)

Sport

Horse racing

Markets

Bookmaker starting prices

Method

Estimates the model's insider parameter from racing odds.

Sample

UK horse-racing data described in the paper.

Replication

Discussed and critiqued in later literature.

Read the original

doi:10.2307/2234240 (opens in a new tab)

Our summary is an original paraphrase for education. Verification: Bibliographic record checked against publisher, index or author listings. Checked 2026-10-25.