Inefficient Forecasts at the Sportsbook: An Analysis of Real-Time Betting Line Movement
Jay Simon · Management Science
Main finding
Sportsbook forecasts were mostly reliable, yet line changes were negatively autocorrelated (overreaction), forecast quality did not always improve toward game time, and simple strategies would have earned significant hypothetical profits.
Limitations
One sport and four US books; profits are hypothetical and ignore limits, latency and stake restrictions.
Study details
- Authors
- Jay Simon
- Published
- 2024
- Venue
- Management Science 70(12), 8583–8611
- Status
- Published
- Evidence type
- Peer-reviewed empirical
- Evidence strength
- Moderate (our assessment of how much weight the finding can bear)
- Sport
- Baseball (MLB)
- Markets
- Moneylines at four US online sportsbooks
- Method
- Tracks moneyline movement from opening to closing for 3,681 games, measuring forecast quality over time and the autocorrelation of line changes.
- Sample
- 3,681 MLB games at four sportsbooks.
- Replication
- Unknown.
Read the original
doi:10.1287/mnsc.2022.00456 (opens in a new tab)
Our summary is an original paraphrase for education. Verification: Bibliographic record checked against publisher, index or author listings. Checked 2026-10-25.