Are Betting Markets Inefficient? Evidence From Simulations and Real Data

Main finding

Apparent inefficiencies appear in individual seasons but do not persist systematically across seasons or leagues, and simulations show that significant single-season results are likely even in a fully efficient market.

Limitations

Pre-match football markets only; specific biases and leagues are as defined in the paper.

Study details

Authors

David Winkelmann, Marius Ötting, Christian Deutscher, Tomasz Makarewicz

Published

2024 (first online 2023)

Venue

Journal of Sports Economics 25(1), 54–97

Status

Published

Evidence type

Peer-reviewed empirical

Evidence strength

Strong (our assessment of how much weight the finding can bear)

Sport

Association football (major European leagues)

Markets

Bookmaker pre-match odds

Method

Simulations of how often statistical tests detect 'inefficiencies' in a market that is efficient by construction, combined with tests of common pricing biases across fourteen seasons of real data.

Sample

Fourteen consecutive seasons.

Replication

Itself a robustness study across many seasons.

Read the original

doi:10.1177/15270025231204997 (opens in a new tab)

Our summary is an original paraphrase for education. Verification: Bibliographic record checked against publisher, index or author listings. Checked 2026-10-25.