Modelling association football scores
M. J. Maher · Statistica Neerlandica
Main finding
Team-strength Poisson models fit football scores reasonably well; allowing modest dependence between the two scores improves the fit.
Limitations
An early model without time weighting or market comparison.
Study details
- Authors
- M. J. Maher
- Published
- 1982
- Venue
- Statistica Neerlandica 36(3), 109–118
- Status
- Published
- Evidence type
- Peer-reviewed empirical
- Evidence strength
- Moderate (our assessment of how much weight the finding can bear)
- Sport
- Association football
- Markets
- None (score modelling)
- Method
- Independent Poisson models for each team's goals with attack and defence parameters, and a bivariate extension.
- Sample
- English league seasons described in the paper.
- Replication
- The foundation for Dixon & Coles and many later models.
Read the original
doi:10.1111/j.1467-9574.1982.tb00782.x (opens in a new tab)
Our summary is an original paraphrase for education. Verification: Bibliographic record checked against publisher, index or author listings. Checked 2026-10-25.