Peer-reviewed studies, preprints and classic methods papers on pricing, efficiency, risk and research practice. Each entry is our summary, with the original link and a plain statement of what the study does not show.
Summaries are original paraphrases of published abstracts and records; no paper text is reproduced. Bibliographic details were checked against publisher, index and author listings on 25 October 2026. Where a paper was later corrected, the correction is shown. Preprints are labelled as not peer reviewed.
2 sources
The model describes score outcomes well, and the authors report a positive return when its probabilities were used to select bets against bookmaker odds in their historical evaluation.
Does not show: That a Dixon–Coles model beats today's football markets after margins, limits and competition.
Team-strength Poisson models fit football scores reasonably well; allowing modest dependence between the two scores improves the fit.
Does not show: Anything about betting profitability.
